Most crime has fallen by 90% in 30 years – so why does the public think it’s increased?

Despite significant decreases in crime over the past 30 years, most people in England and Wales believe crime is rising; Associate Professor Toby Davies and Professor Graham Farrell of the University of Leeds argue that while there are various reasons for the perception gap – including political rhetoric and media coverage – governments should be taking decisions on crimes based on evidence, not public perception.

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All high-income countries have experienced similar trends, and there is scientific consensus that the decline in crime is a real phenomenon.

Seventy-eight per cent of people in England and Wales think that crime has gone up in the last few years, according to the latest survey. But the data on actual crime shows the exact opposite.

As of 2024, violence, burglary and car crime have been declining for 30 years and by close to 90%, according to the Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW) – our best indicator of true crime levels. Unlike police data, the CSEW is not subject to variations in reporting and recording.

The drop in violence includes domestic violence and other violence against women. Anti-social behaviour has similarly declined. While increased fraud and computer misuse now make up half of crime, this mainly reflects how far the rates of other crimes have fallen.

Lees verder via policinginsight.com